The key: Understanding the problem

Greenhouse Effect and Carbon Cycle

Life on Earth is possible thanks to the energy that radiates from the sun. Approximately 30% of solar light is dispersed into space by the outer atmosphere, but the rest arrives at the Earth’s surface, from which it is reflected as a calmer, more slowly moving energy: these are infrared rays. Infrared radiation is transmitted slowly by air currents, and its final release into space is stopped by greenhouse gases (GHG) such as water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone and methane.

GHGs make up only about 1% of the atmosphere, but they act as a blanket or layer that covers Earth, retaining heat and keeping the planet about 30°C hotter than it would be if these gases did not exist.

Human activities are making this layer become thicker and thicker: The natural levels of these gases are complemented by CO2 emissions from the combustion of petroleum, coal, and natural gas; the cutting of forests, and methane and additional nitrous oxide production from agricultural activities. A “thicker” layer of GHGs retains more infrared rays and makes temperatures rise, heating the Earth’s surface.

According to estimates based on climatic models, the average worldwide temperature will increase between 1.4°C and 5.8°C by the year 2100. In the past century, a temperature increase of 0.6°C was recorded.

These changes are occurring very quickly. If emissions continue to increase at the current rate, it is estimated that in the 21st century, atmospheric CO2 levels will be almost double those recorded in the pre-industrial era.

The level of the ocean rose an average of 10 to 20 cm during the 20th century, and for the year 2100, additional increases are expected. Increasing temperatures make the ocean volume expand, and the melting of the glaciers and polar icecaps increases the volume of water, raising sea level and contaminating freshwater reserves. This will cause a serious potable water problem: the quality and quantity of available freshwater will decrease.

Just a slight rise in the average temperature produces climate change, altering the complex web of systems that make life on Earth possible, such as cloud cover, precipitation, wind patterns, oceanic currents, the duration of the seasons, and the distribution of plant and animal species.

Approximately 25% of mammals and 12% of birds are at risk of extinction if an increase in temperatures modifies the conditions in forests, wetlands, and grasslands. These habitats constitute the basis of their subsistence. At the same time, human development will prevent them from migrating to other places.

Humans burn coal, petroleum, and natural gas at a rate infinitely greater than the rate at which these resources were created. In this process, the carbon stored in these combustibles is released into the atmosphere and disturbs the carbon cycle, a balanced system that produces an exchange of carbon between the air, oceans, and vegetation. Currently, atmospheric levels of CO2 are increasing more than 10% every 20 years.

After 150 years of industrialization, a certain level of climate change is inevitable. Atmospheric warming has gained momentum and will continue to affect natural systems on Earth for many years, even once GHG emissions are reduced and the atmospheric concentration stops increasing…

Current tests of climate change

Extreme atmospheric conditions

More frequent and stronger storms, floods, and more numerous and intense droughts. The increase in temperatures means greater evaporation, and a hotter atmosphere can retain more humidity; as a consequence, there is more water suspended that is able to fall as precipitation. At the same time, the drier regions may lose even more humidity if it becomes hotter; this will aggravate droughts and desertification. Extreme atmospheric episodes, which are confirmed  predictions from computerized models, are more frequent, and are expected to intensify and multiply further.

The retreat of winter

During the 20th century, the glaciers retreated significantly, arctic air temperatures increased approximately 5°C, (around 10 times more than average global surface temperatures) and almost all mountain glaciers in non-polar regions retreated.

Changes in the natural world

Scientists have observed changes induced in at least 420 physical processes and biological communities or species.

Source: Met Office Hadley Centre

Global Commitment

Scientists have warned of the threats posed by warming of the atmosphere. This issue affects the whole world and is interwoven with other issues such as poverty, economic development, and demographic growth. Proof discovered in the 1960s and 1970s related to the increase of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere drove climatologists and experts to request intervention.

IPCC

In 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created through an initiative by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). This group is open to all members of the United Nations and the WMO (World Meteorological Organization). In 1991, this group presented its first evaluation report, which included the opinions of 400 scientists. The report affirmed that atmospheric warming is real and asked the international community to do something to avoid it.

The observations of the IPCC reflect worldwide scientific consensus and are apolitical in nature. The panel’s function consists of examining research, publishing periodic evaluation reports and compiling special reports and technical documents relevant to understanding the scientific elements of the potential risk of the climate change provoked by human activities, its possible repercussions, and the possibilities for adaptation and attenuation of these negative effects.

To learn more about this topic, you can find more information on their website at IPCC

In May of 1992, in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), three international treaties were signed at the United Nations Conference on the Environment and Development: the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the  Convention on Biological Diversity and the Convention to Combat Desertification. These three are called the “Rio Conventions”.

UNFCCC

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” (UNFCCC) establishes a general structure for intergovernmental forces designed to resolve the challenge of climate change. It recognizes that the stability of the climatic system is affected by industrial activities and other activities that emit CO2 and other gases that retain heat.

Source: UNFCCC

The convention text begins like this:

Acknowledging that change in the Earth’s climate and its adverse effects are a common concern of humankind,Concerned that human activities have been substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, that these increases enhance the natural greenhouse effect, and that this will result on average in an additional warming of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere and may adversely affect natural ecosystems and humankind…”

To read the full text, click here

In the Convention, if it really is a “Framework” document that should be developed over time, the ultimate objective is to stabilize GHG emissions at a level that prevents anthropogenic disturbances which are dangerous to the climatic system”. Likewise, it declares that “this level should be achieved in a time period sufficient to allow the ecosystems to adapt naturally to the climate change, assure that food production is not threatened, and allow economic development to continue in a sustainable way”.

The countries that have not signed the Convention can sign it at any time. To date, the Convention has received 192 signatures.

Kyoto Protocol

In December of 1997, the governments agreed to incorporate an addition to the treaty, which is known as the “Kyoto Protocol”. This reinforces the objectives, principles, and institutions of the Convention, since the parties committed to achieving individual and legally binding goals to limit or reduce their GHG emissions. Only the parties adhering to the Convention that were also parties to the Protocol (meaning those who ratified, accepted, approved or adhere to it) are obligated under the commitments of the  Protocol. Between all of them, there is a total   cut in GHG emissions of at least 5% compared to 1990 levels in commitment period of 2008-2012.

Mechanisms were included in the Kyoto agreement for “cap-and-trade” (the possibility for buying CO2 emissions from other countries that have reduced their emissions), a “Mechanism for Clean Development” (projects in developing countries by industrialized countries), joint implementation (putting practices in place together with industrialized countries) and carbon sinks (dependence on the forests and vegetation to absorb CO2).

The agreement was enacted on February 16, 2005. Currently 186 countries have ratified it.

The original text of the Kyoto Protocol can be found here.

There is a very interesting publication that clearly and concisely expresses the United Nations Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol. You can find it here.